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Souza CS, Resende FS, Rodrigues MP
Correspondence: Prof Dr Marcelo Palmeira Rodrigues, email@example.com
INTRODUCTION Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is an urgent clinical condition that can progress in a wide variety of ways. Therefore, we sought to develop an easy-to-apply algorithm, to be based on readily available clinical indicators, effective in predicting unfavourable outcomes.
METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study based on systematically collected data in a database. The study included 102 patients with APE who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital. The following outcomes were defined as unfavourable: shock, the need for mechanical ventilation, the use of thrombolytics, and death. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore variables significantly associated with outcome and to calculate post-test probabilities.
RESULTS The prevalence of unfavourable outcomes was 25.5% (26 of the 102 patients with APE). The risk of an unfavourable outcome was reduced to 7.0% for patients with APE who were aged ≤ 40 years. In patients with APE who were aged > 40 years, the presence of hypoxaemia (i.e. peripheral oxygen saturation < 90%) alone increased the risk of an unfavourable outcome to 57.0%. A recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease were significantly associated with unfavourable outcomes. The inclusion of those variables in the logistic regression model increased the post-test risk of an unfavourable outcome to 65.0%–86.0%.
CONCLUSION Advanced age (i.e. > 40 years), the presence of hypoxaemia, a recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease are risk factors for unfavourable outcome in patients with APE.
Keywords: anoxia, logistic models, prognosis, pulmonary embolism, wounds and injuries
Singapore Med J 2014; 55(9): 483-487; http://dx.doi.org/10.11622/smedj.2014118
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